BTC price hits new 18-month highs as Bitcoin market participants appear to get caught off-guard by the strength of a fresh rally.
Bitcoin (BTC) neared $37,000 on Nov. 9 as a fresh BTC price surge appeared to take traders by surprise.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
U.S. “carrying” Bitcoin upside
The pair went on to reach $36,864 on Bitstamp, making its highest level since early May 2022.
The day prior, concerns among market participants focused on bid liquidity heading lower, potentially allowing for a retest of $34,000.
This ultimately failed to occur, with upside entering during United States trading hours.
“Zooming out, this is the most bullish U.S. has been on Bitcoin since early 2022. Asia price change was last seen as bullish as October 2021,” James Van Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, wrote in part of his latest research.
Van Straten referenced data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which showed U.S. buyers sustaining the rally.
“Americans carrying this thing,” William Clemente, co-founder of crypto research firm Reflexivity added.
Bitcoin month-over-month price change during U.S. trading hours. Source: Glassnode
Others speculated that the renewed bullish tone could be tied to a potential U.S. Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval.
While not expected until 2024, Nov. 9 marks the start of the period during which the long-awaited announcement from regulators could theoretically come.
“We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot Bitcoin ETF approvals,” James Seyffart ,research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote on the topic.
“But if it comes earlier we are entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all the current applicants *COULD* occur.”
Reacting to Seyffart, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro agreed.
“BTC sure is trading like an ETF decision is due any moment,” part of his own commentary read.
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingView
BTC price gains beat forecasts
Analyzing market composition, there was an air of moderate shock among longtime observers.
On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators revealed that the overnight gains had invalidated signals on two of its proprietary trading tools — a phenomenon not seen before, per co-founder Keith Alan.
Needless to say, the Trend Precognition ⬇️ signals on the BTC Weekly chart invalidated after the push above $36k. First time I’ve seen that happen when both algos had signals on the same candle. https://t.co/7nGahmgCDW
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) November 9, 2023
Popular trader Skew, who previously warned over liquidity fluctuations, meanwhile likened BTC price action to late January — the point at which Bitcoin’s start-of-year bull run began to fade.
$BTC sweep of $36K & not so great 4H candle here
zoom out to daily & this structure is starting look a lot like late january
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) November 8, 2023
Skew reasoned that the low-timeframe uptrend was “still intact” thanks to a succession of higher lows on the 15-minute chart, along with healthy relative strength index (RSI) values.
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